Market share of thin-film solar modules to rise to 18% in 2011

4th October 2007

Munich, Germany. Markets for thin-film technology used in solar cell modules will grow from 90 MW to 460 MW over the next 5 years. This corresponds to a penetration rate of 10% today, growing to 18% in 2011.

Thin-film modules find their place where the operating conditions are less than optimal for wafer-based systems. Typical examples include cloudy weather or orientations resulting in indirect, ambient and diffuse sunlight, inclination angles of less than 10° and finally elevated ambient temperatures. For example, at 40°C, the efficiency loss of thin-film cells due to the elevated temperature is only 20%, which is much less than of wafer-based cells.

Pros and cons

Thin-film modules are also lighter than wafer-based modules if polymer or steel foils replace glass substrates. This makes it possible to install PV systems on buildings whose static load is already at their peak. Indeed, prices per Watt peak favour thin-film.

We note that on the down side, thin-film modules exhibit a lower efficiency overall compared to wafer solutions. But there is another, even more important factor that makes installators hesitant to take the plunge for thin-film. This is the uncertainty about the longevity of the modules.

The total newly-installed capacity in Europe is estimated to be between 850 and 1000 MW in 2006. Thin-film modules make up about 90 MW or 10% of the total. WTC estimates around 18% of 2,500 MW in 2011.

Market Segments

Large rooftops and power plants are the two main applications for thin-film PV modules. Installations on small roofs are not (yet) profitable though. Lower efficiency does not yet cover the fixed cost of the system, made up from manpower, inverter and connectivity.

BIPV is hot for thin-film

Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) is a hot topic for the thin-film proponents. Several new manufacturers are pinning their hopes on thin-film technology becoming a standard product for facades or roofing.

Thin-film technology offers several advantages to architects and building planners. Chief among these are the homogeneous look, possibility for colours other than dark blue/black, semi-transparency and potential for curved substrates. However, we note that expanding the thin-film BIPV market to a significant share of the overall PV market will require a Herculean effort. In 2006, the installed capacity for BIPV in Europe was a few megawatts at best, and much of it was wafer-based. To evangelize the building industry, some manufacturers have already chosen to invest in developing special products and demonstration projects.

By Dr Henning Wicht

This article was derived from a study undertaken during July and August 2007 among European integrators, thin-film specialists and distributors.

Contact

Dr Henning Wicht
WTC Wicht Technologie Consulting
Munich, Germany
+49 89 207 026 010
henning.wicht(at)wtc-consult.de